On Sunday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) welcome the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) to Cincinnati. The game will begin at 1 PM ET. We continue our NFL odds series below with a prediction and pick for the Falcons vs. Bengals game.
Atlanta has six games left in the season and is currently at.500. The Falcons have won three of their last four games after losing to the Saints and Rams to begin the season. Although they lost to the Buccaneers in a game in week five, they have defeated the Seahawks, Browns, and 49ers. Their performance against San Francisco last week was their best of the year; they won 28-14. Despite dropping both games in the division, Atlanta sits second in the NFC South. Falcons have a 6-0 ATS record. Their six games have lost three of them.
Cincinnati is also 3-3 going into the seventh week. The Bengals started the year by losing to the Steelers and Cowboys, but they have since bounced back to win three of their last four games. They’ve won over the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints while falling to the Ravens in a close contest. Despite dropping their first two games in the division, the Bengals are still second in the AFC North. Cincinnati is ATS 4-2. Their six games have lost five of them.
These NFL odds between the Falcons and Bengals are provided by FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Falcons-Bengals Odds
Falcons of Atlanta: +6.5 (-105)
Bengals of Cincinnati: -6.5 (-115)
Over: 47.5 (-110) (-110)
Under: 47.5 (-110)
Why The Falcons Could Cover The Spread
Six games into the season, the Falcons have surpassed preseason projections in a big way. With 4.5 victories, they were tied for the lowest O/U but need to win just two more games to surpass that. Atlanta is eighth in the league in points scored per game, demonstrating the surprising strength of their offence under Arthur Smith. The Falcons have a mediocre defensive record. Atlanta ranks 29th in defensive DVOA despite ranking 13th overall.
Atlanta relies heavily on its running game offensively. It is second in the league that they run on 57% of offensive plays. They ran 40 times last week, which is a season high. This is true despite the lack of a real workhorse running back and the absence of starter Cordarrelle Patterson due to injury. But in his absence, rookies Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley have performed admirably. Huntley has averaged 4.3 yards per carry compared to Allgeier’s 4.4 yards per carry. Marcus Mariota, the team’s third-leading rusher with 206 yards, has also had an impact on the ground. The Bengals will be without standout defensive tackle DJ Reader and have a below-average run defence (ranked 21st in yards per game allowed). The Saints pounded the Bengals for 228 yards on the ground. This feels like a perfect chance for one of the best rushing assaults in the league.
The Falcons’ defensive play is average. They have been strong against the run, but they have been destroyed in the air. Atlanta’s pass defence is 31st, but it is fourth against the run. The front seven is well-positioned to contain a Cincinnati squad that has had trouble running the ball. The Bengals have a mediocre running attack as they rank 27th in rushing yards per game and 29th in yards per rush in the league. Atlanta should dominate in the trenches, but if they want to stifle Cincy’s passing attack, they must maintain their excellent turnover rate (5th in takeaways per game).
Why The Bengals Could Cover The Spread
The Bengals started the season looking like they had a Super Bowl hangover. The Bengals dropped their opening two contests after their miraculous run to the title the previous season. But in recent weeks, they’ve turned it on. Despite ranking 21st in offensive DVOA, Cincinnati is 12th overall. The offensive has gotten off to a poor start, but given their arsenal, things might pick up this week.
Although not terrible, the Bengals’ offence has fallen short of preseason expectations. Joe Burrow, the quarterback, has demonstrated excellent performance lately. After some early difficulties, he and star wideout Ja’Marr Chase finally came to an understanding last week. After his 7-catch, 132-yard performance against the Saints, Chase is eighth in receiving yards. The Bengals are well-positioned to dominate the air this week thanks to the continued improvement of fellow wideout Tee Higgins.
This season, the Falcons’ secondary has been atrocious. They are towards the bottom of the league in terms of yards per game (31st) and completion % allowed (29th) on defence (31st). They also have trouble putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks (32nd in sack percentage) and last week were without starting cornerback Casey Hayward due to injury. Joe Burrow and company have a fantastic chance to capitalise on last week’s victory and destroy Atlanta’s secondary.
Final Falcons-Bengals Prediction & Pick
Even though they have won every game this season, the Falcons are still treated with disdain. Sadly, that streak is expected to end this week. Simply put, Atlanta lacks the personnel to handle Cincinnati’s pass-heavy offence.
Final Falcons-Bengals Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-115)
The postNFL Odds: Falcons vs. Bengals prediction, odds and pick – 10/23/2022
